How do you know when an idea has run its course? Whether you are looking at your store’s basic concept, a major line or category, or even an individual item — it is valuable to know when it is time (to really mix my piscine metaphors) to cut bait.  Jumping the shark, or continuing beyond the period when an idea is still viable, can take time, energy and money away from projects or lines that could be truly productive.

The term jumping the shark has an interesting origin.  Apparently back in 1977, the creators of the TV show Happy Days came up with an episode in which the character Fonzie, on water skis and wearing his trademark black leather jacket, jumps over a shark.  The series continued seven years beyond this point, but to some minds it had reached its peak at the shark jumping moment.  To jump the shark came to mean continuing a TV series after it has run out of freshness and ideas, and was losing audience.

It is never easy to know when a store concept has reached its climax and started to go downhill.  Declining sales can be one indication, but that could of course be attributed to more general causes such as the difficult economy.  Changes in sales are, however, worth tracking to see if there is a pattern that is significant.

I think that the best way to make a major decision about your store is to step back from your close focus on your own business and look at the big picture.   How is the type of merchandise you are selling faring in other locations? Are new stores of your type opening up?  There is an entire web site featuring cartoons of a cupcake jumping over a shark, which is a pretty clear indication that a lot of people think that this trend has reached its peak. 

How are the other business in your area doing — should you consider a different location? Unless you are a destination store, and well established, it is hard to buck the downward trend in a community, street or mall. 

If you are considering whether a trend or an individual item has peaked, talk to your sales reps.  And take a look at what is being offered at trade shows. Are there manufacturers coming out with new items in this category? Is there a lot of excitement in the booths exhibiting this type of merchandise?

The truth is that nothing lasts forever in our industry (even Beanie Babies finally faded away, although they had a good long run). Your store concept is likely to last longer if it is not too tightly aligned with a certain type of merchandise so that you can change with the market.  Paying close attention to trends and changing your merchandise assortment accordingly will help assure your long-term success.

Alas, even the concept of jumping the shark has reached its peak and started to fade. The website www.jumptheshark.com was sold to Gemstar, the owners of TV Guide — reportedly for over $1 million — and it is no longer active, according to Bone the Fish.   But thanks to Bone the Fish, you can actually see the short clip of Fonzie jumping over a shark, which apparently is something that will live forever.

Happy Retailing,

Carol “Orange” Schroeder