This is an updated version of a blog post from two presidential elections ago…

“The coming months are set to be the most turbulent in recent election history,” according to a recent Vogue Business post. “Coming off of pandemic disruptions and supply chain delays, retailers are once again bracing for shifts in consumer spending as people adapt their wallets to what’s happening in the world around them.”

Every four years, retailers in the U.S. are faced with a challenging time as the public’s attention turns to the presidential election. No matter what the political mood is in your part of the country, it is easy to see why customers will be both distracted and distressed. Even high-end stores are feel the impact of the uncertainly of the election cycle. “Since the ups and downs of the luxury market are driven primarily by the mood, feeling and mindset of affluent consumers, it is reasonable to conclude that election years are bad for luxury retail,” high-end retail expert Pam Danziger said in Luxury Daily in 2016.

In planning your fall and holiday promotions, keep in mind that the election is during the first week of November – which means that the focus will probably not be on shopping before and after November 5. Unfortunately Thanksgiving is on November 28 this year, which means a shorter-than-usual holiday season. You’ll want to start your marketing efforts soon after the dust has settled from the election.  An article for Forbes by Jason Goldberg recommends that this year you “push out communications early to capture consumer interest. The weeks leading up to Thanksgiving and the immediate period afterward, including Black Friday and Cyber Monday, will be critical. Data from 2019 [the last time the season was this short] shows that consumers take a break from spending just before Thanksgiving but return with force during the core shopping days.”

Goldberg also mentions that presidential elections historically causes a dip in consumer spending due to heightened economic anxiety. This might be a good time to review your budgeting and open-to-buy for the fourth quarter of 2024 to make sure that you are being cautious. And if you do notice a decline in your sales, rest reassured that you are probably not alone.

Happy Retailing,

Carol “Orange” Schroeder